The base state change (horizontal axis) is denoted by the spatial anomaly pattern correlation coefcient between the linear trend of SST in the 1 yr-1 CO 2 increase climate change experiment and the rst Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of SST in the control experiment over the area 10 S to 10 N, 120 E to 80 W (reproduced from Yamaguchi and Noda, 2006).

Abarbanel, H. D. I., and W.

R. Young, Eds., 1987: General Circulation of the Ocean, 291 pp.

Springer-Verlag. Warren, B.

A., and C. Wunsch, Eds., 1981: Evolution of Physical Oceanography, 623 pp, The MIT Press.

Pedlosky, J., 1996: Ocean Circulation Theory, 453 pp, Springer.

Siedler, G., J. Church, and J.

Gould, Eds., 2001: Ocean Circulation and Climate, 715 pp., Academic Press.

For some topics, additional reading materials will be supplied with class notes Properties of seawater Des 2, 3, 6 Global T-S distribution Des 4 Coriolis force equations of motion geostrophy Ekman layers Description of large-scale gyres Des 7 heat flux components heat flux distribution evaporation, precipitation, runoff box models Fluid dynamics on rotating sphere Dyn 6, 8, 9.

T-S Forcing and conservation laws Des 5 composition equation of state measurement: T, S, pressure wind patterns and gyres western and eastern boundary currents polar currents equatorial currents Barotropic dynamics of large-scale gyres Dyn 9.

Sverdrup, Stommel, and Munk.

Sea surface temperature (SST) changes from year-toyear significantly.

The figure depicts atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from 1958 to the present as measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

These data, obtained by Keeling and Whorf (1998), represent the longest continuous record of directly measured CO 2 concentrations.

As the graph of these data indicates, there has been a substantial and sustained rise in the airs CO 2 content over the past four decades, from about 315 ppm to over 360 ppm.

The greenhouse effect tends to increase atmospheric temperature.

Ocean is a major part of global carbon cycle and our knowledge of oceanography may be important for estimating the trend of global warming.

The black curve is updated from Levitus et al.

The red and green curves are updates of the analyses by Ishii et al.

Willis et al. (2004, over 0 to 750 m) respectively, with the error bars denoting the 90 condence interval.

The black and red curves denote the deviation from the 1961 to 1990 average and the shorter green curve denotes the deviation from the average of the black curve for the period 1993 to 2003 (IPCC Report).

On this time scale, the warming and the consequent thermal expansion of the oceans may account for about 2 -7 cm of the observed sea level rise, while the observed retreat of glaciers and ice caps may account for about 2 -5 cm.

The red curve shows reconstructed sea level elds since 1870; the blue curve shows coastal tide gauge measurements since 1950 and the black curve is based on satellite altimetry).

Error bars show 90 condence intervals (IPCC Report).

Figure 5. 14. Variations in global mean sea level (difference to the mean 1993 to mid 2001) computed from satellite altimetry from January 1993 to October 2005, averaged over 65 S to 65 N.

Dots are 10 -day estimates (from the TOPEXPoseidon satellite in red and from the Jason satellite in green).

The blue solid curve corresponds to 60 -day smoothing (IPCC Report).

Some of the models continue the integration to year 2200 with the forcing held constant at the values of year 2100.

Observationally based estimates of late-20 th century MOC are shown as vertical bars on the left.

Three simulations show a steady or rapid slow down of the MOC that is unrelated to the forcing; a few others have late-20 th century simulated values that are inconsistent with observational estimates.

Of the model simulations consistent with the late-20 th century observational estimates, no simulation shows an increase in the MOC during the 21 st century; reductions range from indistinguishable within the simulated natural variability to over 50 relative to the 1960 to 1990 mean; and none of the models projects an abrupt transition to an off state of the MOC.

Adapted from Schmittner et al.

IPCC report).

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